Free live webinar for investors
Over a trillion and a half dollars in commercial real estate loans are coming due into higher rates. Some owners will refinance. Many won't be able to. In one hour, we'll show you what's actually happening, where the pressure is, and how to evaluate any deal that comes out of it.
Reserve your free seat
The real problem
You've built capital that earns well. But every headline about commercial real estate says something different, and the investors who get hurt in a reset are usually the ones reacting to noise.
What you hear
True for some buildings and some owners. Wildly wrong for others. The difference is the whole game.
What you're told
By the time the reset feels safe, the discounts it created are usually gone.
What you're sold
Some are. Some are yesterday's problem with a new sponsor. You need a way to tell them apart.
Understand what's really coming due, who's under pressure, and the specific tests a deal should pass before you commit a dollar. That's what this session is for.
The reset
For a decade, owners financed buildings at historically low rates on short-term loans. Those loans are maturing into a very different rate environment, and many owners can't refinance at today's cost of capital without adding equity they don't have.
A loan written at the old rate is being replaced by a loan at today's rate. Same building, same rent, meaningfully higher debt payment. That gap is where forced sales, recapitalizations, and opportunities come from.
Sources: $1.5T+ maturing through 2026: PBMares, "Preparing for the CRE Maturity Wall" (2026). $5.0T outstanding and 17% maturing in 2026: Mortgage Bankers Association, 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes (Feb. 2026). Share of 2025 maturities paid off and average rate comparison (S&P Global analysis): as reported by Matthews Real Estate, "The 2026 Capital Reset" (2026). Figures are approximate and subject to revision. Disclaimer: Information derived from third-party sources believed to be reliable; SIMM Capital cannot assure it is accurate, current, or complete.
Why most people read this wrong
The maturity wall already passed.
Not exactly. 2026 scheduled maturities are down from 2025, but a large share of prior-year loans were extended rather than resolved. That debt didn't disappear. It moved forward on the calendar.
Rate cuts will fix it.
Short-term cuts don't set commercial mortgage rates. Many owners are refinancing from loans in the 4s into loans in the 6s. The gap is structural, not a headline away from closing.
All commercial real estate is in trouble.
Pressure varies sharply by property type, lender, and loan vintage. Good buildings with bad debt are a very different situation from bad buildings, and they get priced very differently.
Where the pressure sits
The share of each property type's mortgage balances scheduled to mature in 2026 tells you where refinancing pressure is concentrated, and where it isn't.
On the webinar we'll walk through what these numbers mean for pricing, which segments we believe are pressure without distress, and which are distress without a floor.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, 2025 Commercial Real Estate Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes (Feb. 2026). Share of outstanding balances by property type scheduled to mature in 2026.
Spotlight: triple-net commercial
In a triple-net (NNN) lease, the tenant pays rent plus the property's taxes, insurance, and maintenance, usually on a long-term lease. That makes the value of an NNN property mostly a function of three things: the tenant's credit, the years left on the lease, and the price paid. In a higher-rate market, the gap between strong and weak versions of those three has widened.
A higher cap rate means a lower price for the same rent. The spread shows how sharply the market prices tenant credit and lease term.
Long-term leases to investment-grade tenants are pricing on credit, not on interest rates. Net lease cap rates have barely moved in 2026 even as rate-cut expectations faded, and that quality product is scarce.
New supply is concentrated in non-credit retail. Properties with short remaining lease terms or weaker tenants carry the widest gap between what sellers ask and what buyers will pay. And properties bought at record-low cap rates with cheap debt can face a refinance that costs more than the rent covers.
Triple-net retail is one of the asset classes SIMM Capital invests in. On the webinar, we'll walk through how we underwrite tenant credit, lease term, and basis before we buy.
Sources: The Boulder Group, Q2 2026 Net Lease Research Report (July 2026): overall and retail cap rates, sector cap rates, property supply, and investment-grade share of retail supply. The Boulder Group, Q1 2026 Net Lease Tenant Profiles Report (March 2026): McDonald's ground lease and shorter-term Walgreens asking cap rate ranges. Cap rates are asking rates, reflect market pricing of third-party properties, and are not returns to SIMM Capital investors. Disclaimer: Information derived from third-party sources believed to be reliable; SIMM Capital cannot assure it is accurate, current, or complete.
What you'll learn
How much debt matures, when, and why "extend and pretend" pushed so much of it into the next two years.
How to separate a debt problem from a property problem, and why that distinction drives where the discounts show up.
Basis, debt coverage at today's rates, loan structure, operational control, and a defined exit. Miss one and the deal is counting on the market to bail it out.
Which property types and capital positions we believe are worth attention now, including triple-net retail, and the traps that look cheap for a reason.
A practical list you can use on every operator who pitches you, including us, before you commit capital.
This framework isn't theoretical. It's the checklist we run on our own deals, and we walk away from anything that fails it.
How the hour runs
First 15 min
The maturity data, the refinance gap, and what it means for pricing.
15 to 35 min
How we evaluate deals coming out of the reset, with real examples.
35 to 45 min
How SIMM Capital structures debt and capital for this environment.
Final 15 min
Bring your questions. We'll answer as many as time allows.
Why listen to us
The owners in trouble now are the ones who took short-term, floating debt. We didn't.
216 units, Lawton, Oklahoma
While owners across the market face refinancing into today's rates, this property's debt is fixed at 3.11% through 2031. That's what planning the capital structure before you buy looks like.
Source: SIMM Capital. Figures reflect firm-level track record across entities and transactions and are not the results of any single fund or offering. Interest rate shown is the stated rate on property-level debt and is not a return to investors. Past performance is not indicative of, and provides no guarantee of, future results.
Your presenters
Founder & Managing Principal, SIMM Capital
Mat has raised and deployed private capital since 2006 and has spent roughly 20 years operating across real estate, manufacturing, and retail. He founded SIMM Capital in 2014 and leads its investment strategy and term negotiations. He's the author of Become Scaleable.
Director of Investor Relations, SIMM Capital
Jason works directly with SIMM Capital's investors and will moderate the live Q&A, so bring the questions you'd actually ask before investing.
Is this for you?
Why now, not next year
Clock one: the extensions
Loans extended in 2023 through 2025 are rolling into the 2026 and 2027 window. Extensions buy time; they don't create equity.
Clock two: the rate gap
As long as new debt costs meaningfully more than old debt, over-leveraged owners face a choice: add capital, sell, or hand back the keys.
Clock three: the competition
The MBA forecasts commercial mortgage originations rising to roughly $805B in 2026. As capital returns, the best pricing tends to go to those who were ready first.
Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association CREF Forecast (Feb. 2026); MBA loan maturity surveys. Disclaimer: Statements about future market conditions reflect SIMM Capital's opinion, are forward-looking, and are not a guarantee of any outcome.
Reserve your seat
Register and you'll receive your private link by email, plus a reminder before we go live.
Straight answers
It's an education session first. Most of the hour covers the market and a framework you can use to evaluate any sponsor. We'll spend a short portion explaining how SIMM Capital is positioned, and you're under no obligation to do anything afterward.
Register even if you can't attend live. We'll follow up after the session with next steps. Live attendees get the Q&A.
No. Anyone can attend the educational session. Any investment offering by SIMM Capital is available only to verified accredited investors under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D.
About 60 minutes, including roughly 15 minutes of live Q&A.
Some of the pricing reset has happened. But a significant amount of debt was extended rather than resolved, which pushed maturities into 2026 and 2027. We'll walk through why that matters and what it means for timing.
No. Office gets the headlines, but hotels, industrial, health care, and multifamily all have meaningful maturities, and triple-net retail is being repriced on tenant credit and lease term. We'll cover where we see real risk and where we see pressure without distress.
Lower short-term rates don't automatically lower commercial mortgage rates, and many owners would still be refinancing into higher payments than they have today. We'll cover how we underwrite for rates staying where they are.
SIMM Capital is a Pittsburgh-based private real estate and private equity firm with over $400M in assets under management and more than $750M in deal volume since 2006.
You'll get a confirmation email with your private link, plus a reminder before we go live. If you'd like to talk with our team after the session, you can book a call. We don't send offering documents to anyone before that conversation.
You'll receive your webinar link and reminders by email and text. You can opt out of texts at any time by replying STOP.
Note: These answers are general information only and are not investment, legal, or tax advice. Any investment involves risk, including possible loss of principal.